Senegal’s home gasoline reserves will be mainly used to supply electrical energy. Authorities anticipate that domestic fuel infrastructure initiatives will come online between 2025 and 2026, offered there is not a delay. The monetization of these vital power resources is at the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global know-how group Wärtsilä conducted in-depth research that analyse the economic impact of the assorted gas-to-power methods out there to Senegal. Two very completely different applied sciences are competing to satisfy the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle fuel generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very vital system cost differences between the two main gas-to-power applied sciences the nation is at present contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gas engines are actually significantly better suited than mixed cycle gasoline turbines to harness power from Senegal’s new gasoline assets cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total value differences between the two applied sciences may reach as much as 480 million USD until 2035 depending on situations.
Two competing and really totally different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art energy mix models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised vitality scenarios to establish the price optimal method to deliver new era capacity for a selected country, exhibits that ICE and CCGT applied sciences current significant cost variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program running to 2035.
Although these two applied sciences are equally proven and dependable, they are very totally different by method of the profiles by which they will function. CCGT is หลักการทำงานของเกจ์วัดแก๊ส that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, where it could function at 90% load factor always. On the opposite hand, versatile ICE technology can function efficiently in all operating profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to another generation technologies that can make up the country’s energy combine.
In specific our research reveals that when working in an electricity community of limited size such as Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, counting on CCGTs to considerably broaden the network capability could be extremely pricey in all potential eventualities.
Cost variations between the technologies are defined by numerous components. First of all, hot climates negatively influence the output of gas turbines more than it does that of fuel engines.
Secondly, because of Senegal’s anticipated entry to cheap domestic gas, the working prices turn out to be less impactful than the funding costs. In different phrases, as a outcome of low fuel prices lower working prices, it’s financially sound for the country to depend on ICE energy plants, which are less expensive to construct.
Technology modularity also plays a key function. Senegal is expected to require an additional 60-80 MW of technology capability each year to have the power to meet the increasing demand. This is way decrease than the capacity of typical CCGTs crops which averages 300-400 MW that should be in-built one go, resulting in unnecessary expenditure. Engine power crops, however, are modular, which means they can be constructed precisely as and when the nation needs them, and further extended when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The model reveals that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT plants at the expense of ICE-gas, it’ll lead to as a lot as 240 million dollars of additional value for the system by 2035. The cost difference between the applied sciences can even increase to 350 million USD in favor of ICE technology if Senegal also chooses to build new renewable power capability inside the subsequent decade.
Risk-managing potential fuel infrastructure delays
The development of fuel infrastructure is a complex and lengthy endeavour. Program delays are not unusual, causing fuel supply disruptions that can have an enormous monetary influence on the operation of CCGT plants.
Nigeria knows something about that. Only last 12 months, significant gasoline supply points have caused shutdowns at a variety of the country’s largest gasoline turbine power plants. Because Gas turbines operate on a steady combustion process, they require a constant supply of gas and a steady dispatched load to generate constant power output. If the provision is disrupted, shutdowns occur, placing a great strain on the general system. ICE-Gas plants on the other hand, are designed to regulate their operational profile over time and increase system flexibility. Because of their flexible working profile, they had been capable of maintain a a lot higher degree of availability
The research took a deep dive to analyse the monetary impact of 2 years delay in the gas infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the country decides to speculate into fuel engines, the value of gasoline delay would be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in extra value.
Whichever method you take a look at it, new ICE-Gas era capability will decrease the whole value of electrical energy in Senegal in all attainable situations. If Senegal is to meet electrical energy demand growth in a cost-optimal method, no less than 300 MW of latest ICE-Gas capability shall be required by 2026.