Senegal’s domestic gasoline reserves might be primarily used to provide electricity. Authorities count on that home gas infrastructure tasks will come online between 2025 and 2026, offered there is no delay. The monetization of those vital power assets is at the basis of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the worldwide expertise group Wärtsilä conducted in-depth research that analyse the financial influence of the assorted gas-to-power strategies out there to Senegal. Two very different applied sciences are competing to satisfy the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These research have revealed very significant system value differences between the two primary gas-to-power technologies the country is currently contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gasoline engines are in fact significantly better suited than combined cycle gasoline turbines to harness power from Senegal’s new gasoline sources cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total value differences between the 2 applied sciences might attain as a lot as 480 million USD until 2035 depending on scenarios.
Two competing and very totally different technologies
The state-of-the-art power mix fashions developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised power eventualities to identify the cost optimal way to deliver new era capability for a particular nation, exhibits that ICE and CCGT technologies current significant value differences for the gas-to-power newbuild program running to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally proven and reliable, they are very different by means of the profiles during which they’ll function. CCGT is a know-how that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, where it can perform at 90% load issue at all times. On the opposite hand, versatile ICE technology can function efficiently in all operating profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to some other technology applied sciences that will make up the country’s power mix.
In specific our study reveals that when working in an electrical energy network of restricted dimension corresponding to Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, relying on CCGTs to considerably increase the network capacity could be extraordinarily expensive in all possible situations.
Cost differences between the technologies are explained by a selection of factors. First of all, scorching climates negatively impact the output of fuel turbines greater than it does that of gas engines.
Secondly, thanks to Senegal’s anticipated access to low cost home gasoline, the working costs turn into less impactful than the investment costs. In different phrases, as a result of low fuel costs lower operating costs, it’s financially sound for the country to depend on ICE energy plants, which are less expensive to construct.
Technology modularity additionally performs a key function. Senegal is expected to require an additional 60-80 MW of technology capability each year to have the flexibility to meet the growing demand. This is much lower than the capability of typical CCGTs plants which averages 300-400 MW that should be built in one go, leading to pointless expenditure. เกจวัดแรงดันออกซิเจน , then again, are modular, which means they are often built exactly as and when the nation wants them, and additional extended when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The mannequin shows that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops at the expense of ICE-gas, it will lead to as a lot as 240 million dollars of additional cost for the system by 2035. The value difference between the applied sciences may even improve to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal additionally chooses to build new renewable vitality capacity inside the subsequent decade.
Risk-managing potential fuel infrastructure delays
The development of gasoline infrastructure is a posh and prolonged endeavour. Program delays aren’t uncommon, inflicting gas supply disruptions that may have an enormous financial impact on the operation of CCGT plants.
Nigeria is aware of one thing about that. Only last yr, vital fuel supply issues have brought on shutdowns at a number of the country’s largest gasoline turbine power vegetation. Because Gas turbines operate on a steady combustion process, they require a continuing supply of gas and a secure dispatched load to generate constant power output. If the supply is disrupted, shutdowns occur, putting an excellent strain on the overall system. ICE-Gas crops however, are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and enhance system flexibility. Because of their versatile operating profile, they have been able to preserve a a lot larger level of availability
The research took a deep dive to analyse the financial impression of 2 years delay in the gasoline infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the country decides to speculate into gasoline engines, the value of fuel delay could be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would lead to a staggering 770 million dollars in extra cost.
Whichever means you have a glance at it, new ICE-Gas era capacity will decrease the total price of electrical energy in Senegal in all attainable scenarios. If Senegal is to fulfill electricity demand growth in a cost-optimal way, at least 300 MW of recent ICE-Gas capacity will be required by 2026.